West Bengal Assembly Elections: Why Left voter is a key player in Modi-Mamata battle

KOLKATA: The last time Aishe Ghosh had cameras trained on her, she had her head in a bandage and Deepika Padukone’s arms around her shoulders. The JNU Students’ Union president was among those attacked by a stick-wielding masked mob that had stormed India’s premier central university on January 5, 2020.More than a year later, Aishe is back on the battlefield. A very different one, it runs not through campus buildings but arid farmland, sponge iron units and open cast ‘rat-hole’ mines. The 26-year-old has graduated from SFI to parent party CPM, and from student leader to mainstream electoral politics. medium81711770As the Left candidate from Jamuria (west Burdwan), Aishe’s challenge is daunting. The Left voter had deserted the CPM-led bloc in large numbers in the Lok Sabha election and the task of wooing them back has fallen on the young shoulders of those like Aishe, Srijan Bhattacharya (Singur), Dipsita Dhar (Bally) and Minakshi Mukherjee, who has been thrown into the biggest contest of the polls at Nandigram, where BJP has fielded Trinamool turncoat Suvendu Adhikari against chief minister Mamata Banerjee.While the Left Front has been reduced to a faint shadow of its mighty past, the Left voter could make a difference in what pollsters have predicted to be a tight race between Trinamool and BJP. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, BJP’s trailblazing performance in Bengal (leaping from 2 seats in 2014 to 18 seats) was propelled by an extreme swing in Bengal’s voting pattern. From 30% of the vote share in 2014, the Left was reduced to 7.5% while BJP leapt from 17% in 2014 to 40%. Trinamool increased its vote share from 39% to 43% but the gain counted for little as the anti-Trinamool vote consolidated in BJP’s favour.Aishe’s constituency Jamuria – a Left bastion and a hotbed of trade unionism in Bengal the 1980s – is an example. CPM candidate Jahanara Khan won in 2016, bagging 67,214 votes. The Trinamool candidate came second with 59,457 votes. BJP (22,040 votes) was a distant third. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, this assembly segment illustrated the spectrum shift – BJP led with 76,051 votes and CPM dropped to a mere 15,549. The adjoining assembly segments of Raniganj and Asansol Dakshin threw up a similar pattern. The ruling Trinamool also saw a marginal dip in votes. Polarisation among voters, following riots in Asansol-Raniganj-Jamuria belt in 2018, could have been a factor.The Left has been trying to regroup after the 2019 shock. This time, it has sought to inject energy into its ranks through young faces and made its own spectrum shift in the way it campaigns – ‘haal pherao, laal pherao’, one of its main poll jingles is set to the tune of the SRK-superhit ‘Lungi Dance’, a far cry from the revolutionary songs that once electrified its cadre. medium81712374Keen to make its presence felt and disrupt the Modi-Mamata battle, the Left has this time sought to inject energy into its ranks through its young faces. It has made its own spectrum shift in the way it campaigns – ‘haal pherao, laal pherao’, one of CPM’s main poll jingles based on the SRK-superhit ‘Lungi Dance’, is a far cry from the revolutionary songs that once electrified its cadre.Who’s meeting their demands?Aishe is greeted with flowers at many places. But votes are a different matter. Vaishnavi, among those in a small welcome party for her, says she has made up her mind. “My four sons have left home looking for jobs. I voted for Didi in the last elections. I will vote for padma phool (lotus) this time,” she said. In a region with crippling joblessness, and angst about outsiders from Jharkhand taking up jobs at the sponge iron units, BJP’s promise of a “double-engine government” resonates.At Arambag in Hooghly district, marginal farmer Sheikh Hasibul echoes the sentiment. “I have little land. I can’t support my family. I want a job. BJP leaders have promised jobs,” the CPM supporter told TOI.Across the vast Gangetic plains of Bengal, either side of the Hooghly, Left voters don’t shy away from voicing their aspirations and anger, whether it’s jobs, economy, Covid and lockdown, or culture and “attacks” on deep-rooted liberal values. But there’s scepticism about the winnability of CPM, CPI, RSP and Forward Bloc candidates, forcing many to look elsewhere, at Trinamool, BJP and also Nota. A professor at St Xavier’s College in Kolkata explained his dilemma. “I don’t like the histrionics of Mamata Banerjee. At the same time, I don’t want BJP to come to power. I can vote for the Left. But they won’t be able to make it this time. Should I press the Nota button?” he said. medium81711941Voters in Kolkata (11 assembly seats) largely went with Trinamool in the 2016 assembly polls and in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. BJP finished ahead of Trinamool in only three assembly segments — Shyampukur and Jorasanko in north Kolkata and Rashbehari in south Kolkata. Suranjana Bose, a teacher and resident of the south Kolkata neighbourhood of Dhakuria, believes the Left has been doing enough to bounce back. She thinks the alliance with Congress and the newly formed Indian Secular Front (ISF), Furfura Sharif cleric Pirzada Abbas Siddiqui’s outfit, will boost vote share. “The alliance will regain a portion of the minority votes it lost to Trinamool. Sanjukta Morcha will put in an impressive performance this time,” she said.The know who they don’t wantIn neighbouring North 24 Parganas, the densely populated suburban district that has most assembly seats in the state (33), minorities make up 25.8% of the population, and the political discourse around Hindu majoritarianism is unlikely to leave too many sitting on the fence. The division in opinion is sharp, deepening the Left voter’s dilemma. Often, it’s not a question of who to support but who to oppose.Sujay Saha, a second-year commerce student at Bhairab Ganguly College in Belghoria, understands that CPM is trying to put together a revival act but doesn’t give the party a chance. “Fact is, the Left has been losing its vote share since the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. I believe a section of Left voters will vote BJP to remove Trinamool from office,” he said. On the other hand, IT professional Nemai Biswas, a resident of nearby Sodepur, is confident BJP can’t repeat its 2019 performance. “Obviously, a chunk of the Left votes shifted to BJP during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. But it won’t be a major phenomenon this time. The Left-Congress-ISF vote share will go up,” Biswas said. medium81712430At Behrampore town in Murshidabad district (which has 22 seats), Left supporter Abhijeet Roy has very different sentiments. Roy is furious that communist parties have to lean on Congress and even ISF. “I don’t like this alliance. This will only harm the Left,” Roy said. It’s a concern several Left observers air as well, especially in assembly seats which have a substantial population of Hindus who crossed over to Bengal from erstwhile East Pakistan after 1947 and after the Bangladesh Liberation War in 1971. Even in the evisceration of its vote share at the 2019 hustings, CPM and other Left parties retained substantial support in such seats, like Tollygunge, Jadavpur, Behala Purba, Behala Paschim, Baranagar, Kamarhati, Panihati, Barasat and Siliguri. But the alliance with ISF is uncharted territory.The alliance will also have implications in several other districts. A potential three-way split in the Muslim vote will hurt Trinamool the most and play into BJP’s hands. But in seats that saw sharp right swing, like in the Asansol-Raniganj-Jamuria belt, it may dent BJP’s prospects. An overall gain for the Left may also hurt BJP more. Debkumar Medda, a high school teacher at Pursurah in Hooghly district and a CPM-dominated All Bengal Teachers Association (ABTA) member, said he will vote for Trinamool’s defeat. “I am going to vote for BJP. I think my party (CPM) won’t be able to do that (defeat Trinamool),” he said. Hooghly, which has 18 assembly seats, saw BJP gaining considerably in 2019, with actor Locket Chatterjee winning the Lok Sabha seat. But at Bishnupur In Bankura (12 seats), high school teacher Payel Banerjee’s vote will go to Didi. Payel, the daughter of CPM card holder Swadesh Banerjee, who fought the Bishnupur civic polls twice, said, “BJP and Trinamool are in a close fight this time like never before. I will vote for Mamata. She has worked a lot for my district.” Electrical engineer Romen Dutta, a resident of Burdwan (25 seats), is disturbed by the communal rhetoric that BJP leaders have brought into Bengal. “The RSS and BJP are a danger to our social fabric. I could have voted for Trinamool. But I am appalled with the manner in which Trinamool has handled education and employment. I will vote against both of them,” said Dutta, holding his cards close to his chest.Soumita Dey of East Burdwan said her vote would go to someone who is inclusive rather than divisive. “People need to get two square meals a day. That should be the main aim of political parties, not caste or religion. I will choose a candidate who has a clean image and doesn’t divide people based on caste or religion,” she said. Jobs, NRC and the need for a leaderMidnapore, staging ground for the battle of the Bengal election at Nandigram will also make a significant statement with its 31 seats. With both BJP and Trinamool campaigning aggressively here, Left voters are reticent about voicing their opinion. Private tutor Somnath Chandra, who lives in Midnapore Abas, says BJP got a portion of the Left vote in 2019 because of some mistakes made by CPM. Prasun Pariya, headmaster of a school in Salboni, believes CPM will get back a share of votes that went to BJP in 2019.CPM’s Minakshi Mukherjee has kept her message focused on jobs. “What will happen to this marketplace, to the grocers, farmers and transporters if young people have no jobs?” she said, accusing both Trinamool and BJP of depriving the state of much-needed industrial growth. medium81712060As one moves north, polarisation of opinion becomes apparent. A CPM voter in Malda (12 seats), the gateway district into north Bengal, suggested she had made a clear choice. Romena Biwi, a homemaker, isn’t taking any chances. For her, the NRC (National Register of Citizens) scare remains a real one. “If BJP wins, we have to leave the country,” said Romena, adding she will vote for Trinamool.In Darjeeling district (5 seats), where the two main Gorkha rivals Bimal Gurung – formerly aligned with BJP – and Binay Tamang are both supporting Trinamool, Mamata is eyeing a sweep while BJP is optimistic about Siliguri, the predominantly plains constituency. Political science professor and Siliguri resident Gautam Tamang thinks the realignment in equations in the Hills may lead to some Left voters returning to the fold.“The Left can present a counter narrative to the policies of the Trinamool government and the BJP’s move against the public sector,” Tamang said. Shanti Munda (78), a close associate of Naxal leader Kanu Sanyal, doesn’t want BJP in Bengal. “What the BJP is doing is not at all good. Look at the way they are trying to crush the farmers’ agitation,” she said. medium81712134Aishe, meanwhile, is trying to establish a bond through ‘aam darbars’ set up at village street corners. She is going door to door, asking people about their problems and talking wages and farmer protests. “Fighting the assembly election is a different ball game. In JNU, I used to interact with students. Now, I interact with farmers and workers,” she said. Aishe could do with some ‘step-down’ transmitters – people who would explain what party leaders said to locals in the way they understood best. Like in the power grid, CPM had such transmitters aplenty but not anymore.Not just voters, the party desperately needs its cadre back, but what it misses more than anything else is a leader. A Jyoti Basu or a Buddhadeb Bhatatcharjee to rise through the ranks. The Left voter is still looking for one.(Additional reporting by Roshan Gupta, Subhro Maitra, Sukumar Mahato, Sujoy Khanra, Falguni Banerjee, Someswar Boral, Mohammad Asif & Sanjib Chakraborty)Photos and videos: Debobrata Shome; Illustration: Uday DebUntitled Carousel 81719889